Black Smoke Rises: Vatican Conclave Begins, No Pope Elected on First Ballot

VATICAN CITY — A tense silence fell over St. Peter’s Square today as black smoke billowed from the Sistine Chapel chimney, signaling that the College of Cardinals failed to elect a new pope in their first round of voting. The centuries-old ritual continues under the shadow of transition, with the world watching anxiously for the white smoke that will herald the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church.

The conclave was convened following the resignation of Pope Francis on April 28, 2025, citing declining health and a desire to retreat into prayer and reflection. His historic decision — only the second papal resignation in six centuries — has sparked theological debate and curiosity over who might succeed the Argentine-born pontiff.

As the faithful packed the square under overcast skies, the black smoke rising shortly after 7 p.m. local time confirmed what Vatican watchers had suspected: unity among the 117 voting cardinals will take time.

The Process Behind the Smoke

The papal conclave is one of the oldest continuous electoral traditions in the world. Held in strict secrecy, cardinals under the age of 80 gather behind locked doors within the Vatican’s Apostolic Palace to discern, deliberate, and vote for the next Bishop of Rome.

The ballots — written by hand and burned after each vote — produce either black or white smoke. Chemical additives cause the smoke to turn black when no candidate reaches the required two-thirds majority (currently 79 votes). White smoke indicates a successful election.

On the first day of conclave, tradition allows for one ballot, with up to four cast on subsequent days — two in the morning and two in the afternoon.

This evening’s black smoke suggests that no clear front-runner has yet consolidated support among the cardinals, many of whom represent diverse theological, cultural, and political perspectives.

A Church at a Crossroads

This conclave occurs at a particularly pivotal time for the Roman Catholic Church, which shepherds more than 1.3 billion faithful worldwide. Pope Francis, elected in 2013, will be remembered for his progressive leanings, championing issues such as climate change, migration, poverty, and institutional reform.

However, his papacy also exposed deep divisions within the Church — between traditionalists favoring doctrinal rigidity and reformists advocating modernization, especially regarding the role of women, LGBTQ+ inclusion, and the decentralization of authority.

According to veteran Vatican correspondent John L. Allen Jr., “The next pope will have to navigate these fault lines with clarity, humility, and above all, pastoral sensitivity.”

The conclave’s deliberations reflect these broader currents. Will the cardinals choose continuity — someone aligned with Francis’ vision — or pivot toward conservatism and institutional consolidation?

Leading Contenders and Global Representation

Among the top contenders is Cardinal Matteo Zuppi of Bologna, Italy, a close ally of Francis and advocate of the Church’s social justice mission. Zuppi, known for his diplomatic skills and charisma, is reportedly popular among many European cardinals.

Another frequently mentioned name is Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who previously served as head of the Vatican’s Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development. If elected, he would be the first African pope in over 1,500 years.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, a widely respected figure in the global south and current prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, also garners attention. Fluent in multiple languages and culturally adept, Tagle represents the increasingly dynamic Catholic presence in Asia.

There are also conservatives among the papabili (papal contenders), such as Cardinal Raymond Burke of the U.S., though analysts suggest his chances are limited due to his contentious relationship with Pope Francis and his outspoken criticism of Vatican reforms.

While Vatican insiders insist that the Holy Spirit guides the decision, geopolitics and Church diplomacy play a decisive role in the deliberations.

Public Reaction: Hope, Anxiety, and Prayer

In St. Peter’s Square, thousands gathered despite the chill and rain. Some prayed silently, while others engaged in animated discussions about possible outcomes. Screens set up around the square broadcast live commentary in multiple languages.

“It’s a moment of great hope, but also uncertainty,” said Elena Moretti, a 29-year-old teacher from Florence. “We need someone who can bring the Church together, not pull it apart.”

Pilgrims from Brazil, Nigeria, Canada, and South Korea echoed similar sentiments, highlighting the Church’s vast cultural reach. Volunteers distributed candles and rosaries while choirs from various parishes performed hymns, creating an atmosphere of reverent anticipation.

Inside the Conclave: Absolute Secrecy

Under Vatican law, strict confidentiality governs all aspects of the conclave. Cardinals take an oath of secrecy, and any breach is considered a grave ecclesiastical offense. Electronic devices are confiscated, and the Sistine Chapel is swept for surveillance equipment.

According to leaked details from prior conclaves, alliances tend to form early but can shift dramatically with each vote. Personal charisma, theological clarity, and a demonstrated ability to bridge divides are critical attributes in a successful candidate.

The cardinals stay in the Domus Sanctae Marthae guesthouse within Vatican City and are shuttled to the Sistine Chapel for each ballot. Meals are taken communally, and informal conversations between ballots often shape opinions as much as the formal voting.

A World in Waiting

The global media presence in Rome has reached a fever pitch. More than 6,000 accredited journalists from every continent are covering the event, with live broadcasts, expert panels, and minute-by-minute analyses. News outlets, from CNN to La Repubblica, are running headlines tracking every puff of smoke.

Social media platforms have also exploded with speculation. The hashtag #Conclave2025 trended worldwide within hours. Memes, prayer chains, and even AI-generated papal predictions reflect the unique convergence of ancient tradition and modern digital culture.

U.S. President Emily Rivera, French President Emmanuel Macron, and leaders across Latin America and Africa issued statements expressing support and prayer for the cardinals.

What Happens Next?

The conclave will resume voting tomorrow, with two ballots in the morning and two in the afternoon. White smoke could appear at any point — either as early as tomorrow or, as history shows, after several days of deliberation.

The average duration of a conclave in the modern era is three to five days, though past conclaves have taken weeks. In 2013, it took five ballots over two days to elect Pope Francis.

Once a pope is chosen, he is asked if he accepts the election, and then he selects a papal name. Shortly after, the senior cardinal deacon announces to the world: “Habemus Papam” (“We have a pope”). The new pontiff will then emerge on the central balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica to give his first Urbi et Orbi blessing.

Conclusion: Awaiting the Next Shepherd

As the world holds its breath, the Catholic Church stands at a moment of profound significance. The next pope will inherit not only the mantle of Peter but also the daunting task of guiding a faith community through a rapidly changing and often polarized global landscape.

Whether the cardinals choose continuity or change, tradition or transformation, one truth remains: their decision will echo far beyond the hallowed halls of the Sistine Chapel, touching the lives of millions in every corner of the Earth.

Key Highlights:

• Black smoke on May 7 signals no pope elected on first ballot

• 117 cardinals voting in secret within the Sistine Chapel

• Top candidates include Cardinals Zuppi (Italy), Tagle (Philippines), and Turkson (Ghana)

• Next voting rounds to continue May 8 with four ballots per day until consensus

• New pope expected to be revealed with white smoke and official Vatican announcement

Stay tuned for continuing coverage as the conclave unfolds.